Resilient Together: Charting ASEAN Resilience in the New Geoeconomic Reality
2025
Context and Opportunity
ASEAN’s trajectory is being reshaped by three major geoeconomic shifts: overcapacity and surges in industrial output, the reorganization of global trade alliances, and a more fragmented economy that challenges cross-border cooperation. Together, these forces are fragmenting trade, redirecting investment, and accelerating industrial policies that prioritise security and resilience over efficiency. These are creating both risks and opportunities that impact ASEAN, making it critical to understand their implications in detail.
Growth Gateway equipped ASEAN with 15 clear priority areas to mitigate and respond to geoeconomic impacts. If combined with enabling reforms, advancing these priorities could generate GBP 2.2–3 Trillion in GDP uplift, nearly matching the size of ASEAN’s current economy. These areas include, among others, addressing non-tariff barriers, digitising trade activity, unlocking critical global value chains, opening new markets, and deepening industrial cooperation.
Key Highlights
Value at risk
£1.4T
Trade value exposed due to geoeconomic shifts
Business voices
100+
Private sector consulted through surveys, interviews and roundtables
Value at stake
£3T
In GDP uplift due to advancing the 15 priorities identified with enabling reforms
Growth Gateway worked with the ASEAN Secretariat and the ASEAN Geoeconomic Task Force (AGTF) to strengthen ASEAN’s resilience to geoeconomic shifts.
This work has equipped ASEAN with a clear roadmap to reinforce competitiveness and resilience, while also elevating the UK’s role as a trusted strategic partner on resilient value chains and geoeconomics. By combining the region’s priorities with UK’s expertise, it has reinforced strategic multi-lateral government ties and created a platform for long-term trade, investment, and policy collaboration.
Support Provided
Provide a diagnostic assessment of geoeconomic implications
Analysed geoeconomic impacts across three key shifts:
- Overcapacity and surges in industrial output: $740B of potential trade diversion from key partners
- Reconfiguration of economic blocs: $1.5T in projected ASEAN export volume to key trade corridors
- Economic fragmentation: $68B in total incremental impact on ASEAN-US exports
- Concluded that ASEAN stands to lose $0.7-1.5T in trade and $50-110B in investment as a result of mounting geoeconomic shifts
Brought the private sector voices to the table
Conducted engagement sessions with ASEAN and UK businesses through:
- Business roundtables attended by 50+ senior executives and ASEAN business leaders
- Private sector survey of 100+ business respondents
- In depth expert interviews with senior executives to understand main challenges and policy prioritiesSet up platform for offtake and financing solutions
Identified 15 priorities with six starting points for ASEAN
Surfaced six starting points amongst 15 high impact priorities to deliver in the short term. ASEAN can realise progress that directly addresses private sector concerns, builds confidence in the region’s competitiveness, and lays the foundation for longer-term resilience.
Combined with enabling reforms, advancing these fifteen priorities could generate GBP 2.2–3 Trillion in GDP uplift, nearly matching the size of ASEAN’s current economy.
We liked Growth Gateway presentation on how we don’t just need to think about tariffs, but also need to strengthen the non-tariff measures, such as standards
–Indonesia representative to AGTF
Impact Achieved
8 Priority Sectors
identified as both most impacted and most strategically vital, including automotive, consumer electronics, energy, and metals
15 Priorities Identified…
…with 6 Ambitions for ASEAN
in the short-term to strengthen and build sustainable long-lasting resilience
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