Context & Challenge/Opportunity

Pakistan is the 8^th most vulnerable country to climate change globally¹, with hazards such as  extreme heat and flooding projected to cause ~4.5% losses to real GDP by 2050². Despite this, Pakistan’s adaptation and resilience financing remains severely constrained, at ~25x less than annual requirements – a £10B annual climate finance gap³.

Across Pakistan, the cost of climate inaction (COI) is projected to reach ~£1Tn by 2050, with significant losses in agriculture (£800Bn). This underscores the need for capacity building to mobilise investment for climate adaptation through digital decision-making tools and the development of an investable A&R project pipeline in Sindh.

Projected climate cost of inaction (COI) by 2050

Growth Gateway / CIFAK partnered with GoP to develop a climate tool to support the government in assessing, prioritising, and coordinating climate investments, alongside targeted capacity building. The intervention also supported the development of a pipeline of high-impact, investable agricultural projects in Sindh, aiming to crowd-in private capital, advancing adaptation, resilience, and the delivery of Pakistan’s National Adaptation Plan.

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Support Provided

Developed A Climate Risk And COI Visualisation Tool

Co-developed the Climate Impact Assessment Portal (CIAP) with CIFPAK and the Government of Pakistan (GoP) to institutionalise data-driven A&R decision making and unlock investment. The tool:

• Operationalises climate analytics across hazards and social and economic dimensions
• Quantifies climate risk using Cost of Inaction (CoI) methodology to identify priority interventions

CIAP is currently being embedded in government processes to inform A&R planning and budgeting

Provided Training For Federal And Provincial Organisations

Designed and implemented a tailored CIAP training programme for federal and provincial organisations:

• 150+ users trained with materials transitioned to in-country tool champions ensuring sustainability
• ~90% of users report good or excellent understanding of Cost of Inaction (CoI) concepts
• 97% of users in Sindh indicated increased confidence in A&R, CoI and tool use
• 100% of users likely to use the tool in their day-to-day work

Developed A Portfolio With Two Projects In Commercial Discussions

Developed and mobilised a high-impact agriculture Adaptation and Resilience (A&R) pipeline:

• Two flagship projects worth £480M now in active commercial discussion and expected to secure commitments within 12 months
• Secured two letters of Expression of Interest (EoI) for the £63M Agroforestry Platform
• Secured PPP approval for the £420M mechanisation programme and advanced to feasibility study phase

The Government of Sindh is now progressing the projects to achieve financial close and implementation within 9–12 months

Impact Achieved

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